Today’s forecasting team for day 1 found a significant threat for severe weather over western Turkey in the coming hours: level 2 there.

Here is what their experimental Testbed forecast says:

Day 1 Forecast

Valid: Thu 08 Jun 2017 09:00 to Fri 09 Jun 2017 06:00 UTC

Issued: Thu 08 Jun 2017 08:53

Forecaster: ESSL TESTBED

A level 2 was issued across W Turkey mainly for large hail and to lesser extend isolated tornadoes, severe wind gusts and extreme rainfall.

A level 1 was issued across Bulgaria, Greece and soroundings for large hail and extreme rainfall.

DISCUSSION

Turkey

Approaching trough from the Mediterranean push a strong southwesterly mid level jet into W-Turkey. Large scale lift/height falls expected. Broad overlap of a steep lapse rate and low level moisture as indicated by the latest observations will create a favorable environment for initiation in the afternoon hours. First storms are expected over the mountains. Strong deep layer sheer and favorably veering profiles supports supercells (deep layer sheer ~ 20 m/s or more). First stroms are capable of producing very large hail (5 cm), later on highest storm coverage poses of threat of large hail and locally excessive precipitation and severe windgusts. In the evening increasing low level sheer can be sufficient for a few tornadoes as well.

Image: Interesting EUMETSAT NWCSAF product for today. Discussion showed that there is substantial moisture available not only in the typical very thin mediterranean coastal layer, but also inland over western Turkey with ongoing advection from the south (green to yellow to orange colours in the precipitable water product).

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