Preparing the first outlooks

On the second day of the final Testbed week, the participants worked on their first outlooks. During the morning/forenoon hours the outlooks of the Day1 and 2 periods were prepared. Overall, the best chance for severe storms was confined to the Alps and Poland for Day 1 due to the approach of a cold front from the west. Moderate shear/CAPE caused two level 1 areas. A similar result became visible for Day 2 with two level 1 areas displaced more to the south and southeast. Overall, participants tried to get a feeling about how to use the ingredient-forecasting method.

Afterwards a very interesting talk about lightning detection products was offered by Kathrin Wapler, including numerous case studies and statistics about various thunderstorm events. Within this talk remote sensing data was included like satellite and radar data but also reports from ESWD. So called lightning jumps (a sudden increase in lightning activity) often preceeds severe weather reports which could be useful for thunderstorm forecasts.

Finally during the afternoon hours, two groups used the afternoon hours to either prepare nowcast warnings or to work on Day 3-5 forecasts. In general no outbreak of severe thunderstorms is forecast. Nevertheless numerous regions of interest exist like over Spain and the Balearic Islands.

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