COSMO-E predicts a very high probability for extreme precip amounts in the Valais and Ticino area of southern Switzerland for Thursday late evening.
Maximum projection of all ensemble members showing maximum 12 h precip sums of locally more than 200 mm.
Point by point probability for rain sums larger than 70 mm: around 80 % in some places.
Fraction of members exceeding the threshold of 70 mm in a 40 by 40 km square. Nearly all members for this timestep predict excessive rainfall in south-central Switzerland.
What does the signal look like in COSMO-DE-EPS?
Aaargh, I (should) know the answer myself: The lead-time is too short, COSMO-DE-EPS does not have any forecast for Thursday evening, as yet …