We started our day from the verification of very interesting yesterday’s severe weather events over Sofia domain (Turkey, Balkan and Italian Peninsula). In total 6 tornadoes, numerous heavy rain and large hail cases have been reported so far. Most serious event associated with excessive precipitation occurred over eastern parts of Bulgaria where 11 people were killed by flash flooding.
19.06.2014 ESWD reports (state for 20.06.2014 0800UTC)
Our participants focused on this domain in yesterday’s nowcasting, previous day1 and day2 forecasts as well as in long term forecasting few days ago. Let’s take a quick look at verification of the most precise forecasts and nowcasts:
Day 3 forecast: 
Day 2 forecast:
A level 2 was issued for eastern Romania and eastern Bulgaria for extreme rainfall and to a lesser extent for severe wind gusts and hail.
A level 2 was issued for western and northern Turkey for large hail, severe wind gusts, tornadoes and to a lesser extent for heavy rainfall.
A level 1 was issued across a large section of the Balkan peninsula for heavy rainfall and large hail.
Day 1 forecast:
A level 2 was issued for the Northern Aegean Sea, Northeast Greece, Southern Bulgaria and extreme Northern Turkey for heavy rain, frequent CG lightning, and the possibility of large hail and strong wind gusts. A waterspout cannot be ruled out, especially over the North Aegean Sea.
A level 1 was issued for the most of the Balkans and Southern Italy. Associated hazards in this region include heavy rain and lightning. In southern Italy, low LCL heights coupled with strong deep layer shear could promote an enhanced hail threat for the area in the afternoon and early evening hours.
Nowcasts:
This somehow proves that with the use of products available for parcitipants during the Testbed, it was possible to estimate severe weather threat even on the day3 forecast. Day 1 and 2 forecasts as well as nowcasts also issued tornado threat on quite distinctive area of NW Turkey.
Congratulations to our participants for good forecasts!
