Day 1 forecast of the team in the green room

The situation in the central Mediterranean Sea is quite exceptional for the season. And especially ECMWF was very aggressive in its 0-1 km shear forecast, with more than 15 m/s in a stretch along the coast of Montenegro and Albania. 0-6 km bulk shear reaches 30 m/s in some places in the 00 UTC ECMWF forecast, resulting in this map. Forecasters in the green room discussed if they should stay with level 2 or go for the 3, and finally decided to take the upper, because of the impressive overlay of all ingredients for tornadic supercells in this region overnight. We will see if nature will evolve this solution or another.