An interesting lecture of the day concerning lightning detection was remotely presented by Ryan Said (USA) from VAISALA. At the Testbed participants use GLD360 lightning data to define thunderstorm position and verify their forecasts. Yes, what about verification of our participants day1&2forecasts? Let’s take a quick look at them:

It is worth to praise Paris domain team for predicting a strong thunderstorm (50mm rain in 1 hour and high lightning activity) that moved S of the Alps during the night. Their forecast was partially based on the COSMO-DE ensemble product of “total water” parameter (using fraction of members exceeding the value of 40kg/m2). This NWP prediction was very distinctive! Bravo COSMO!

It is also worth to check COSMO ensemble 15Z forecast of convective cells in central Poland from previous blog entry. As it can be seen on the 15Z nowcasting situation below, COSMO-DE ensamble forecast again succeded:

A COSMO-day! 😉