If weather around our testbed site is promising enough it is foreseen that participants can opt in for an afternoon mobile nowcasting session. It means that the regular programme at the testbed venue continues as usual, but in addition one or two teams in cars will drive to the storms, discuss the visual observations and issue nowcasts via our laptops.

Today 8 nowcasts were issued including 4 from the two mobile teams, which is in total a quite high output. Here are a few impressions:

This year we are testing IASI retrievals from EUMETSAT. We integrated several parameters into our testbed display, like mean layer CAPE or mean lowest 100 hPa mixing ratio. The IASI retrievals are displayed as coloured dots on the chosen background model maps. See an example for the mixing ratio here:

A new forecast group joined the ESSL Testbed this week:

In connection to a project with the ECMWF, this year at the ESSL Testbed, different approaches for CAPE calculations are offered in the testbed data display:

It means that in addition to the standard CAPE – which is provided by ECMWF operationally – we try to compare with the usability of other approaches, namely with a mixed layer CAPE of the lowest 50 or 100 hPa alternatively, the surface parcel CAPE and the most unstable CAPE for situations of elevated CAPE, which does not show up in calculations that use close-to-surface parcels. In addition a combined plot is offered that displays both mixed layer and most unstable CAPE in combined colour shaded and colour contour plot.

Monday’s and also yesterday’s forecasting teams at the ESSL Testbed did an amazing job by forecasting the severe weather threat over the region stretching from northern France to the northern parts of the Netherlands.

A level 2 was issued, and according to the current amount of severe weather reports entered into the ESWD it can already be said that the forecasts verified very well. A subjectively nearly perfect forecast was the day 2 forecast issued on Monday:

Participants are closely monitoring the “high CAPE, high shear – situation” over parts of western Europe. Testbed forecasts calling for a level 2 in the period until tomorrow 6 UTC.

Western Europe and also the Danube delta region close to the Black Sea are some of the hotspots for the first testbed forecasts. This time we start with redesigned model maps and an improved roaming sounding tool, to name just two of the enhancements at the ESSL Testbed this year.

CAPE and shear overlap in the Danube delta region

Welcome to the participants of the first testbed week, from Slovakia, Poland, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Croatia, the Netherlands, Germany, and Austria.